From our correspondent in Nairobi, Florence Morice

At this start of the electoral campaign, the picture drawn by the Commission is certainly more reassuring than at the same time in 2017, but it remains mixed. The report concludes that the election should take place in a "peaceful" manner in 31 of Kenya's 47 counties.

Elsewhere, it is less encouraging. Six counties are considered "high risk" for violence and 10 others present a risk described as "moderate". The report notes an increase in hate speech in public spaces and on social networks. It also alerts to the reemergence of "organized criminal gangs" composed mainly of young people and likely to be used as "militias" by the "political class".

Climate of uncertainty

In Kenya, no one has forgotten the scale of the violence that followed the 2007 election. In March, the United States — a key partner of the country — did express concern by highlighting the consequences that violence in Kenya would have on the stability of the region and on the country's economy. In this climate of uncertainty, many Ugandan and Rwandan importers have for several months already decided to divert part of their goods from the port of Mombasa to the Tanzanian port of Dar es Salaam, fearing disruptions.

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